Monday, February 9, 2009

US Stimulus and the new bank bailout 'most' likely would NOT work

As we are getting nearer to the Stimulus passage as well as a new bank bailout, I am fully convinced about 2 things:

1) The Stimulus plan is smaller than expected, and it is a hodge-podge of ideas, with not much specifics. Worse of all, it doesn't even have a coherent theme in it. The new administration just wanted to have bipartisan support, and succumbed to demands from all sides. Furthermore Nobel laureate Krugman has ranted about it in his blog yesterday.
My prediction is that even though the bill is signed this month, a lot of work projects would begin without a system to monitor its progress. After a few months, if unemployment still hovers or exceeds present level, and the economy has not shown any signs of life, then the world markets will slide to the abyss once again. We could have Stimulus II & III then, but it would be too late.

2) The new bank bailout plan, I believe, is still work in progress, without much clarity and certainty. We should expect the status quo to remain; American taxpayers getting hosed, and trash assets still marked at preposterous level. There is talk that "mark-to-market" would be suspended. I believe this is an act of desperation from the govt, so that they could delay the inevitable. What is it? That the bank stocks would go to zilch(0) eventually, since the financial losses have trumped the market capitalization of all banks combined. The tricky part, how much the govt needs to pay for the bad assets when the 'bad' bank is created? We will find out soon. Looks like nationalization is the only viable alternative left, although vested interests are totally against it.

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